Is Final Cut Pro going to a subscription model?

All,

This is very worrying - I'd like to think that Apple is clever enough to realise that charging a subscription for FCP would kill it off.

9to5mac.com/2021/02/24/final-cut-pro-subscription/

I'm still having problems the fact that the inferior and buggy Adobe Premiere filled the void that Apple CHOSE to leave when it killed off FCP7. Apart from AVID installs, Apple had the rest of the NLE market to themselves. 

Peter

Quite worrying...
I have moved to Affinity software some time ago to not have an Adobe subscription and use Adobe only for very specific projects.
If FCP did become subcription based...I would be moving to DVinci Resolve even if I prefer FCP.
For the type of work I do cost is of the essence.

Agreed. This would be a death blow to the application. A huge number of people are using it specifically because it's not a subscription service and abhor the concept of renting software. I wouldn't mind being charged for updates, but I'm not sure there's a mechanism for that in the App Store. 

Same here. I can manage updates.

Subscription for a fully functioning FCP and I give it up and go to Resolve, period.

For some reason I really resent the 'software as a service' model, even though I pay for Netflix, Amazon Prime and other services on a monthly basis. I have a Creative Cloud account through work but I hate Adobe's almost monopoly like grip on the creative industries who have all fallen in line to be milked by the Adobe subscription model. If Apple go the same route as Avid and Adobe they will be loosing a unique selling point and I speculate may loose a lot of customers as well. Many will go to Resolve and others will be thinking - "Well I'm paying - I might as well go back to Adobe for the 'Integration' " and because Adobe is seen by many as an industry standard for design, web design, photography and video post production, especially for the corporate, advertising and marketing industries. It may end up being almost as big of a disaster as the FCPX launch. I love working with FCPX but the software doesn't define the editor. I use them all off and on - hell I've even edited using Lumafusion which is pretty damned good on my phone during some long flights.
Maybe they'll do a business model like 'Kyno' and you keep the version you've paid for but receive no further updates outside of your paid subscription period until you renew. I rather hope though that they don't go down this route at all.

peteramwiggins wrote: This is very worrying - I'd like to think that Apple is clever enough to realise that charging a subscription for FCP would kill it off...

Agreed. In marketing terms, FCP is a "halo product" for Mac hardware. With the upcoming transition to Apple Silicon it also helps show off the hardware, which validates the design decision and encourages further Mac sales. Apple probably has an internal "leverage coefficient" which approximates how much additional Mac sales revenue is generated by FCP.

If FCP goes subscription only, a lot of people will move to Resolve. Once people go to Resolve (which is cross-platform) it's a small step to Windows -- then no more Mac hardware sales from that group.

Even if FCP only adopts a partial subscription model, the lack of certainty over further subscription encroachment will drive customers away.

FCP for some things. Resolve for other things. If subscription then it's Resolve for everything and I'll be saying adios, sayonara, arrivederci, docvedaña FCP. (You're loved and all but just not on an hourly basis.)

I can't understand what would Apple's business model motive would be for a subscription.
It would almost make more sense to include it free to sell Macs to budget-constrained editors who might otherwise go Windows.
Consider that Resolve is free and Resolve Studio is a one-time purchase of $299 like FCP (and included free with Blackmagic cameras).

Perhaps since Apple only gets new FCP income on new sales they'd go to something like $29/yr to generate annual revenue for accounting purposes but, as others have alluded to, their real revenue is generating Mac sales from FCP users.

Apple, like Blackmagic, generators revenue on hardware which is unlike Adobe so I don't see any business sense to subscriptions.

Perhaps we're overlooking something and the app will remain priced at is but the add may be a subscription to cloud-based collaborative and storage features (think Frame.io type features and then some).

For me, the big puzzle has always been Sarbanes Oxley - Which means that in the US you can't add major features to software without charging for it. Hence the subscription model with Adobe etc which it doesn't apply to.

Now, as multicam was a major feature add, why didn't I have to pay for that update. Odd eh?

Now, as multicam was a major feature add, why didn't I have to pay for that update. Odd eh?

Maybe that was still seen as restoring features previously available in FCP7.

peteramwiggins wrote: For me, the big puzzle has always been Sarbanes Oxley - Which means that in the US you can't add major features to software without charging for it. Hence the subscription model with Adobe etc which it doesn't apply to....

I remember that being mentioned back around 2007, but I think the current legal interpretation of that has changed. Microsoft gave free Windows 10 upgrades to many Windows 7 users.  Apple often releases major feature updates to existing iOS users without cost.

And let's not forget Apple has filed thousands (probably hundreds of thousands) of patents that they've done nothing with.  There is actually a patent for a roles based mixer in FCP we've never seen.  So this may be nothing at all.

Also, I'd not use Netflix or other movie/TV show platforms as a comparison.  You're not renting software there, you're rending movies and TV shows, very different thing.

Right. It could just be nothing. OTOH, the 9to5 article spells out 4 possible scenarios that do make sense.

Cloud subscription seems reasonable especially for collaboration.   but still after fiddling with Resolve 17beta for a few days it seems they are trying to be the real grown up FCP....and so far it feels promising

That's because the phone costs money - the software is free

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A subscription-only outcome would be less than ideal, but it's possible this is only going be an option. As in, perhaps the app will still be available outright, but they'll also throw it in with the top tier Apple One sub? Or you get it free for the first year of a new Mac? Or — it'll be for a new add on like cloud-based editing?

The only reason I can imagine for this would be either lawyers trying to cover all bases for all possible future scenarios (do for instance have all Apple software like Pages, Numbers, etc, that clause in the EU), or are they preparing for a Final Cut cloud based sharing setup like Pages, Numbers or Photos has?

None of their software is subscription based. None of their software apart from maybe Logic is geared purely at the professional. All Apple tendencies were towards kind of cleverly simplifying their software which benefitted the non-professional as much as the professional. Final Cut Pro is almost a software on the fence as it has very professional features but still didn't go all the way to cover for every professional requirement. As we have been low on truly 'new' features they are of course still fine tuning what they have. Again apart from maybe Logic this is exactly what they are doing with Pages, Photos etc.

So as speculating is fun the only reason I could imagine is that they see where Frame.io is going, where Postlab is going with Drive, and because Video will need large server capabilities for us to edit in the Cloud, they might consider charging a monthly fee for that as they do with extra iCloud storage.

And as usual only Apple knows

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